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In this article we will examine some of the variables that should be considered when betting on football.
Just as in all forms of sports betting, football betting is best viewed as a business venture or an investment rather than a gamble. A gamble is something that we do on games of chance, such as roulette, but football is not a game of chance. Although there are certainly random elements in it, over time these random elements tend to even out and the overall phenomenon becomes deterministic; it is governed by the laws of cause and effect.
The aim of the good football better should be to learn how to analyse these non-random elements of the game and use this analysis to identify the occasions when the bookmakers make errors and offer bets that provide a positive value to the punter.
By value bets we mean bets where the odds offered by the bookmaker are better than the chance of winning the bet. A lot of bookmakers also offer free betting to attract new customers. For instance if a bookmaker offered evens on Tottenham beating Everton, but subsequently we discovered that a key Everton player had suffered an injury during training and another was facing a ban should he receive another yellow card, then it is likely that the true odds of Tottenham winning are much higher than 50%, say you might estimate that they are 70%. This is a value bet, and although it not guaranteed that you would win this individual bets, if you only made value bets then you would be certain to win in the long term.
The important thing about football betting is keeping right up to the minute with everything that is happening in the sport. Very often there is a time lag before the bookmaker analyses the latest information, so by keeping ahead of him you can beat him at his game.
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